Home Trading Is it possible to increase your chances of getting lucky? Hot Hands.

Is it possible to increase your chances of getting lucky? Hot Hands.

by Admin

One of the traditional New Year wishes is a wish for good luck. Who would deny it, we all want fortune to smile on us and generously bestow its gifts. But, as they say, there are different kinds of luck….. Whoa! Turns out you can increase your chances of getting lucky. This, according to researchers from Harvard and the University of California, is confirmed by several studies conducted by them.

Imagine, the longer a person has a series of lucky events (throwing a ball, gambling bets, and so on), the more likely that this period of good luck will last. This seems to defy probability theory and takes on a touch of the miraculous. But scientists have found a logical explanation for this phenomenon – the “hot hands” phenomenon. This phenomenon is easiest to notice in sports. For example, if a basketball player enters a state of good luck, the probability of a successful shot is 30% higher than average.

What is “hot hands”? It’s a psychological state that manifests itself in confidence, increased motivation, inspiration, and a willingness to take more risky actions to achieve results. Consider this: if a basketball player fails to hit the basket from close range, he has doubts about taking further shots. But if he successfully outrebounded opponents and brought the team a few points, his confidence inspires bolder action. It may not always work, but the fact that he tried it increases the chances of success.

Is it possible to increase your chances of getting lucky? Hot Hands.

This phenomenon even works in gambling. For example, a triple win in a sports sweepstakes increases the chance of guessing and the fourth time by 67% (not the standard 50%), and if you lose, the fifth time the probability of winning rises to 72%. But if the first bet is unsuccessful, the odds of success on the second drop to 47%, and on the third to 45%.

Similar trends can be seen in card games, especially when strategic aspects of the game are important. Roulette is more difficult, as there is a greater role of chance, but the phenomenon of “hot hands” is also possible when using strategies.

So, “hot hands” work where a person invests effort to achieve a favorable result. The more effort, the higher the probability of luck.

Since trading is not a casino, it is better to draw analogies with sports. For example, many authors emphasize the similarities between sports and stock trading: discipline, experience, choice of direction. The situation seems to be similar with luck. Feeling confident, a trader acts more actively, uses a variety of strategies and, as a rule, gets more than the one who hesitates and is too cautious.

Of course, this is not a call for careless risky play. Risks are always controlled. But it’s important to remember that luck loves the bold! And it is usually more generous to them than to those who are too slow. This has long been observed and confirmed by science.

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